Hindsight is 20/20. Unfortunately, some people’s foresight leaves them completely blind. The fact is that everything changes. You might be on top today, but there’s always someone (or something) with a bullseye on you, looking to bring you down.
I knew this before the lesson was learned. When I first got into the oil and gas business, everyone said that the work in the Barnett Shale region would last forever — about 20 years! Okay, so 20 years isn’t forever, but when you’re a 23-year-old kid still fresh out of college, 20 years is indeed forever away. There were all kinds of studies and statistics to support the claim. But there was one thing they forgot to include in their assessments: foresight. They were so stuck in the here and now that they forgot to have any foresight. And foresight should have told them that it was nonsense. I knew it was. It was too good to be true. That’s why I saved my money up and got ready for the hard times. Nothing lasts forever. No market stays the same.
Sure, I can see why everyone thought that the boom would last forever. Gas prices were around $4.00 per gallon. We all know that once prices go up, they never go down. And then the bust happened. Some people got caught with their pants down. Some people really got hurt.
And now when you look around, everything in business is changing. The Internet is largely to blame. Everything is going online, just some things are doing so more slowly than others. Will anything ever replace the Internet? Right now it’s so easy to say no.
Organization structures are getting smaller and more efficient. Communication is changing, things are becoming more intimate. Organizations are becoming more transparent to their customers now. When did this all happen?
Now, I’m always trying to look ahead. I admit that I have a hard time seeing things before they happen, but at least I’m trying. Are you?
